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Pronóstico de precio energético en Colombia: Una aplicación econométrica
dc.contributor.author | Díaz Contreras, Jhon Alexis | |
dc.contributor.author | Arango Arango, Mónica Andrea | |
dc.contributor.author | Ramírez, Yamile | |
dc.coverage.spatial | Colombia | spa |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-03-30T15:18:16Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-03-30T15:18:16Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-03 | |
dc.identifier.issn | ISSN :16469895 | spa |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12749/16107 | |
dc.description.abstract | Pronosticar el precio de la energía eléctrica es de suma importancia para empresarios, académicos y reguladores, ya que este mercado es fundamental para el desarrollo económico de los países. Su pronóstico es un desafío, ya que es un producto básico que presenta altos niveles de volatilidad, pues su comportamiento depende del clima, el precio de los combustibles y las limitaciones para su almacenamiento. Por tal motivo, se propone un método para pronosticar el precio de la energía eléctrica en el mercado colombiano, basado en modelos económicos; ARIMA-GARCH. A través de las estadísticas se concluyó que el modelo de mayor ajuste por la variación del precio en medios es un ARMA (14.10)–GARCH (1.1), indicando que los decisores considerarán los resultados de los últimos 14 días para diseñar su estrategias de inversión. | spa |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | spa |
dc.language.iso | eng | eng |
dc.relation.uri | http://www.aisti.eu | spa |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/ | * |
dc.source | Revista Ibérica de Sistemas y Tecnologías de la Información; Número E27 (Marzo 2020); páginas 663-676 | spa |
dc.title | Pronóstico de precio energético en Colombia: Una aplicación econométrica | spa |
dc.title.translated | Forecast of energy price in Colombia: An econometric application | eng |
dc.publisher.grantor | Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga UNAB | spa |
dc.rights.local | Abierto (Texto Completo) | spa |
dc.publisher.faculty | Facultad Economía y Negocios | spa |
dc.publisher.program | Pregrado Economía | spa |
dc.type.driver | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | spa |
dc.type.local | Artículo | spa |
dc.type.coar | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |
dc.subject.keywords | Electricity price forecast | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | ARIMA-GARCH model | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Economy | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Energetic industry | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Economic development | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Economic models | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Economic analysis | spa |
dc.identifier.instname | instname:Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga - UNAB | spa |
dc.identifier.reponame | reponame:Repositorio Institucional UNAB | spa |
dc.type.hasversion | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion | spa |
dc.rights.accessrights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | spa |
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dc.relation.references | Tan, Z., Zhang, J., Wang, J., Xu, J. Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models (2010) Applied Energy, 87 (11), pp. 3606-3610. Cited 208 times. http://www.elsevier.com.aure.unab.edu.co/inca/publications/store/4/0/5/8/9/1/index.htt doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.05.012 | spa |
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dc.relation.references | Vera, G., Daniel, V., La, P.D.E., Mensual, D., Con, D.E.E. Pronóstico de la demanda mensual de electricidad con series de tiempo (2016) Revista EIA, 13, p. 11. | spa |
dc.contributor.cvlac | Arango Arango, Mónica Andrea [0000197440] | spa |
dc.contributor.cvlac | Díaz Contreras, Jhon Alexis [0000788031] | spa |
dc.contributor.googlescholar | Arango Arango, Mónica Andrea [es&oi=ao] | spa |
dc.contributor.googlescholar | Díaz Contreras, Jhon Alexis [es&oi=ao] | spa |
dc.contributor.orcid | Arango Arango, Mónica Andrea [0000-0002-4051-8627] | spa |
dc.contributor.orcid | Díaz Contreras, Jhon Alexis [0000-0002-6983-181X] | spa |
dc.contributor.researchgate | Arango Arango, Mónica Andrea [Monica-Andrea-Arango-Arango-2202594431] | spa |
dc.contributor.researchgate | Díaz Contreras, Jhon Alexis [Jhon-Diaz-Contreras-2] | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Economía | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Industria energética | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Desarrollo económico | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Modelos económicos | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Análisis económico | spa |
dc.identifier.repourl | repourl:https://repository.unab.edu.co | spa |
dc.description.abstractenglish | Forecasting the price of electric energy is of the utmost importance for entrepreneurs, academics and regulators, as this market is essential for the economic development of the countries. Its forecast is a challenge, since it is a basic product that has high levels of volatility, because its behavior depends on the climate, the price of fuels and the limitations for its storage. For this reason, a method is proposed to forecast the price of electricity in the Colombian market, based on economic models; ARIMA-GARCH. Through the statistics, it was concluded that the model of mayor adjustment for the variation of the price in media is an ARMA (14.10)–GARCH (1.1), indicating that the decision makers will consider the results of the last 14 days to design your investment strategies. | spa |
dc.subject.proposal | Modelo ARIMA-GARCH | spa |
dc.subject.proposal | Pronóstico del precio de la electricidad | spa |
dc.type.redcol | http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART | |
dc.rights.creativecommons | Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia | * |
dc.contributor.researchgroup | Grupo de Investigación en Dinámicas Sectoriales | spa |
dc.contributor.apolounab | Díaz Contreras, Jhon Alexis [jhon-alexis-díaz-contreras] | |
dc.contributor.linkedin | Díaz Contreras, Jhon Alexis [jhon-jairo-serrano-diaz-646861207] |