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Estudio dinámico sistémico acerca de los efectos en las estrategias de recuperación económica post Covid-19 en Colombia
dc.contributor.advisor | Parra Valencia, Jorge Andrick | |
dc.contributor.author | Méndez Parra, Miguel Ángel | |
dc.coverage.spatial | Colombia | spa |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-01-25T15:26:02Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-01-25T15:26:02Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12749/15380 | |
dc.description.abstract | La actual crisis del Covid-19 no solo ha afectado el ámbito de la salud, sino que ha tenido serios efectos sobre la economía colombiana. Este trabajo describe un modelo diseñado para evaluar la efectividad de las estrategias propuestas por el gobierno colombiano para hacer frente a la crisis económica que trajo consigo la pandemia del Covid-19. Para el diseño del modelo se usó la herramienta Vensim PLE, este modelo permite simular el comportamiento de las empresas, dado la serie de cuarentenas que se hicieron obligatorias debido a la pandemia. Finalmente, mediante una serie de pruebas se evaluó la validez y calidad del modelo. Se determinó las causas estructurales que provocaron las respuestas del sistema, lo que permite diseñar propuestas de mejora en el sistema económico colombiano. Este modelo es una herramienta útil para la toma de decisiones, ya que permite visualizar el comportamiento productivo de las empresas desde varias perspectivas y consideraciones. | spa |
dc.description.tableofcontents | Resumen ................................................................................................................ V Lista de Figuras ................................................................................................. VIII Lista de Tablas ..................................................................................................... IX Introducción ........................................................................................................... 1 1. Marco teórico ...................................................................................................... 5 1.1. Crisis económicas ......................................................................................... 5 1.1.1. La Gran Depresión ............................................................................ 6 1.1.2. Final de la edad de oro ...................................................................... 6 1.1.3. La gran moderación y la crisis financiera del 2008 ............................ 8 1.2. Dinámica de sistemas ................................................................................. 10 1.2.1. Elementos de los modelos de Dinámica de sistemas ..................... 10 1.2.2. Tipos de variables ........................................................................... 11 1.2.3. Diagrama causal ............................................................................. 13 1.2.4. Ciclos de realimentación ................................................................. 14 2. Estado del arte ................................................................................................. 15 2.1. Antecedentes .............................................................................................. 15 2.2. Análisis bibliométricos ................................................................................ 19 2.2.1. VOSviewer ...................................................................................... 19 2.3. Antecedentes – Modelos dinámica de sistemas ......................................... 22 2.3.1. J. Forrester’s World Model .............................................................. 22 2.3.2. Homer Model ................................................................................... 24 3. Pregunta de Investigación y Objetivos .......................................................... 26 3.1. Pregunta de investigación .......................................................................... 26 3.2. Objetivo general .......................................................................................... 26 3.3. Objetivos específicos .................................................................................. 27 4. Metodología ...................................................................................................... 28 4.1. Metodología de la Dinámica de Sistemas ................................................... 28 4.1.1. Articulación del problema ................................................................ 29 4.1.2. Diseño del diagrama causal ............................................................ 29 4.1.3. Diseño del modelo ........................................................................... 30 4.1.4. Formulación del modelo matemático ............................................... 30 4.1.5. Validación del modelo ..................................................................... 31 4.1.6. Formulación y evaluación de políticas ............................................. 32 5. Resultados ........................................................................................................ 33 5.1. Definición de las variables del modelo ........................................................ 33 5.2. Diseño del modelo ...................................................................................... 35 5.2.1. Hipótesis dinámica .......................................................................... 35 5.2.2. Diagrama de flujos y niveles ........................................................... 38 5.3. Resultados de simulación ........................................................................... 42 5.4. Validación del modelo ................................................................................. 46 5.4.1. Pruebas de estructura ..................................................................... 46 5.4.2. Pruebas de comportamiento ........................................................... 47 6. Cumplimiento de Objetivos, Trabajos Futuros y Conclusiones .................. 48 6.1. Cumplimiento de Objetivos ......................................................................... 48 6.2. Discusión sobre la Pregunta de investigación ............................................ 49 6.3. Aportes ....................................................................................................... 50 6.4. Trabajos Futuros ......................................................................................... 50 6.4.1. Oportunidades de Desarrollo Teórico .............................................. 50 6.4.1. Oportunidades de Desarrollo Metodológico .................................... 51 6.5. Conclusiones .............................................................................................. 52 7. Bibliografía ....................................................................................................... 53 | spa |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | spa |
dc.language.iso | spa | spa |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/ | * |
dc.title | Estudio dinámico sistémico acerca de los efectos en las estrategias de recuperación económica post Covid-19 en Colombia | spa |
dc.title.translated | Systemic dynamic study on the effects on post-Covid-19 economic recovery strategies in Colombia | spa |
dc.degree.name | Ingeniero de Sistemas | spa |
dc.publisher.grantor | Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga UNAB | spa |
dc.rights.local | Abierto (Texto Completo) | spa |
dc.publisher.faculty | Facultad Ingeniería | spa |
dc.publisher.program | Pregrado Ingeniería de Sistemas | spa |
dc.description.degreelevel | Pregrado | spa |
dc.type.driver | info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis | |
dc.type.local | Trabajo de Grado | spa |
dc.type.coar | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_7a1f | |
dc.subject.keywords | Systems engineer | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Technological innovations | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Economic crisis | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Strategies | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Productive behavior | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | System dynamics | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | System analysis | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Simulation methods | spa |
dc.subject.keywords | Programming with dynamics | spa |
dc.identifier.instname | instname:Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga - UNAB | spa |
dc.identifier.reponame | reponame:Repositorio Institucional UNAB | spa |
dc.type.hasversion | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion | |
dc.rights.accessrights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | spa |
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dc.contributor.cvlac | Parra Valencia, Jorge Andrick [0000160326] | spa |
dc.contributor.googlescholar | Parra Valencia, Jorge Andrick [es&oi=ao] | spa |
dc.contributor.orcid | Parra Valencia, Jorge Andrick [0000-0002-2060-6419] | spa |
dc.contributor.researchgate | Parra Valencia, Jorge Andrick [Jorge-Andrick-2180343080] | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Ingeniería de sistemas | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Innovaciones tecnológicas | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Análisis de sistemas | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Métodos de simulación | spa |
dc.subject.lemb | Programacióncon dinámica | spa |
dc.identifier.repourl | repourl:https://repository.unab.edu.co | spa |
dc.description.abstractenglish | The current Covid-19 crisis has not only affected the health field, but has had serious effects on the Colombian economy. This work describes a model designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the strategies proposed by the Colombian government to deal with the economic crisis brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. For the design of the model, the Vensim PLE tool was used, this model allows to simulate the behavior of companies, given the series of quarantines that were made mandatory due to the pandemic. Finally, through a series of tests, the validity and quality of the model was evaluated. The structural causes that provoked the responses of the system were determined, which would allow the design of improvement proposals in the Colombian economic system. This model is a useful tool for decision-making, since it allows to visualize the productive behavior of companies from various perspectives and considerations. | spa |
dc.subject.proposal | COVID-19 | spa |
dc.subject.proposal | Crisis económica | spa |
dc.subject.proposal | Estrategias | spa |
dc.subject.proposal | Comportamiento productivo | spa |
dc.subject.proposal | Dinámica de sistemas | spa |
dc.type.redcol | http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TP | |
dc.rights.creativecommons | Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia | * |
dc.coverage.campus | UNAB Campus Bucaramanga | spa |
dc.description.learningmodality | Modalidad Presencial | spa |
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